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Food prices the wild card in the deck
Munim Chowdhury, The Daily Star, 22 May 2008
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Photo: Amirul Rajiv |
ALL the good achievements of the caretaker government seem to be facing serious challenges in the wake of high prices of food, particularly rice. The global food shortage and galloping increase of food prices, and their impact on Bangladesh in recent months, are not understood by the poor masses. All they understand is the price structure that existed during the rules of Hasina and Khaleda, and compare it with the prices they are paying at the moment.
The question they ask is: “Are we better off now than three years or eight years back?” All they are interested in is the rise in prices of food and other basic essentials.
The caretaker government has the following major achievements to its credit:
- They made our streets and homes safer from muggers, toll collectors, and mafias,
- Created an effective Anti-Corruption Commission by selecting a non-controversial, competent, incorruptible, well motivated, creative and unblemished person to head the organisation, together with some other praiseworthy individuals who comprise the team,
- Reorganised and restructured the Public Service Commission, which enjoy public confidence to a large extent,
- Reorganised the Election Commission with some respectable impartial citizens who are committed to deliver good results to the country,
- They separated judiciary from the administrative service, which was being debated and was under active consideration of the government for a quarter of a century.
These are not their only achievements. Other national issues, which they tackled effectively with reasonable degree of success, cannot be covered in this article.
The sad part of the whole issue is that all this is vanishing from public memory to the advantage of some hungry, powerful, corrupt political leaders waiting to return to the pre 11/1 days to exploit the food prices issue.
The high prices of food grain are not the creation of this government, they are global phenomena. It is ill-luck for Bangladesh and the caretaker government that the country faced three disasters in 2007, which has largely contributed to shortage and high prices of rice and other agricultural commodities.
One significant reason for the caretaker government’s fall in popularity is perhaps the selection of the advisers, who were not necessarily selected very judiciously and wisely. The selectors should have gone out and found the best experienced, talented and impartial personalities that Bangladesh could offer.
Food prices are affecting everyone all over the world, including the US. Asians, Africans, and Latin Americans are the major victims. Governments in many countries are facing food riots. Argentina, the Philippines and Kenya are among those countries.
Musharraf of Pakistan lost the election primarily because of the escalating prices of flour and other food items. The present government in Pakistan will face this challenge in the months to come. People are standing in breadlines in many countries. People in the Philippines are spending 68%, Indonesia 78%, and Egypt 69% of their income on food. In the land of abundance of food, namely US, people are complaining about the high cost of food, which has jumped to 18% from 12% of their income in six months.
From Mexico to Pakistan, violent protests over food prices were witnessed. West African nations have seen violent attacks on government offices and looting of food godowns.
The high prices of food grains, and shortages, are likely to continue for several years, and our country needs to prepare to avoid disaster. No matter who runs the government, the caretaker government, military government or democratic government, the country will face a very challenging time in the years to come.
The World Bank estimates that the recent food price increases will push another 100 million people globally into extreme poverty and starvation. It will take at least several years to stabilise world food shortages and millions are likely to starve and perish. The tragic implication is serious enough, unless something is done quickly in a planned manner to meet the challenge.
Political governments in the past robbed our country and, today, two former prime ministers, three home ministers and dozens of other corrupt powerful political figures are in custody on corruption charges.
During their time, the country earned the status of world’s number one corrupt country. Some hungry politicians are out shouting for western prescribed democracy and the release of those leaders who brought misery to the people of Bangladesh. These politicians have no solid base, they want to contest election under the wings of the two ladies, who succeeded in coming to power by playing on innocent public emotion and taking advantage of their murdered father/husband who were once the country’s revered national leaders.
Additionally, our eagerness to quote Boucher and Anwar Chowdhury on democracy and human rights is not going to help much in overcoming the food shortage. The corrupt politicians returning to power may not help Bangladesh much in reducing the high prices of food and other essentials, or preventing a possible violent public outburst.
Bangladesh’s future will depend on how well we plan and implement actionable agro-based programs to make the country self sufficient in food, and feed the growing population of 150 million people with dalbhat.
Munim Chowdhury is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.
Pti, New York, The Daily Star, 24 May 2008
Poor countries, relying on food imports, are expected to spend 40 per cent more this year than the last year, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has said.
According to the latest Food Outlook, a biannual publication by the FAO focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets, this year’s food import bill for the Low Income Food Deficit Countries is forecast to reach $ 169 billion.
Characterising this as a ‘worrying development’ the FAO noted that by the end of this year imports could cost four times as much as they did in 2000.
“Food is no longer the cheap commodity that it once was,” said the agency’s Assistant Director-General Hafez Ghanem, stressing that soaring food prices are likely exacerbate the food deprivation suffered by 854 million people.
“We are facing the risk that the number of hungry will increase by many more millions of people,” Ghanem said.
Although the global production outlook is favourable, this is unlikely to translate into the decline of many agriculture commodities because of the need to replenish stocks and rising utilization.
It predicts record cereal production this year but says tight markets will result in continued price volatility.
International prices of most agricultural commodities, the Food Outlook report says, have started to decline, but they are unlikely to return to the low price levels of previous years.
The food price index has remained stable since February 2008, but the average of the first four months of 2008 is still 53 per cent higher when compared to the same period a year ago.
Despite a favourable global production, the expected price decline in many basic agricultural commodities during the new 2008-09 season is likely to be limited, because of the need to replenish stocks and an increase in utilisation. Due to rising utilisation, more than one good season is required to replenish stocks and reduce price volatility, report adds.
The FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2008 points to a record output, now at nearly 2192 million tonnes, including milled rice, up 3.8 per cent from 2007.
Among major cereals, the tight wheat supply is likely to improve most, given the prospects for better harvests in 2008.
Despite record production levels in several crops, tight markets will probably lead to continued price volatility during the season.
Heads of state and government will address the problem of high food prices and the challenges of climate change, bio-energy and food security at the upcoming three-day summit in Rome beginning on June 3.
The rise in international prices of oilseeds and oilseed products, it says, has accelerated in 2007-08, with values climbing to new record levels in March 2008.
World markets have tightened considerably as reduced supply growth for oils and a drop in meal supplies are coinciding with further expansion in demand.
First forecasts for the 2008-09 season point towards a strong recovery in global oilseed production, and the resulting oil and meal output should be sufficient to meet global demand, the FAO report adds.
Regarding sugar, it says, generally favourable growing conditions led to a record world production in 2007-08 and although world sugar consumption is foreseen to increase at a sustained rate, it will not be enough to absorb an expected second consecutive global supply surplus.
International sugar prices are likely to remain under downward pressure, it predicts.
Global meat output, the agency says, is expected to grow in 2008 despite high feed prices. Strong economic growth is expected to sustain steadfast consumption in many developing countries.
Global milk production, which is responding to the past year’s high milk product prices, is forecast to grow strongly in 2008. However, it says there is uncertainty as to where dairy markets will head.
Global trade in milk products is anticipated to fall again in 2008 mainly because of reduced exportable supplies.
Food Outlook forecasts that aquaculture production growth will continue this year with the historic milestone of reaching the same level as the expected capture fisheries in 2008. Prices for wild species from capture fisheries are moving upwards strongly but the price increase for farmed species are expected to be more moderate.
Worldwide potato production could expand over the next decade between 2 and 3 per cent annually with developing countries, especially those situated in Sub-Saharan Africa, being the main engine of growth.
China, the world’s biggest potato producer, is reviewing proposals for the potato to become one of the country’s major food crops, while India plans to double its output in the next five to 10 years, it adds.
