The Daily New Age, 05 September 2007

Khawaza Main Uddin

The country’s striving for food security and poverty reduction may falter as a consequence of ‘diminishing marginal return’ from farming and limited livelihood opportunities the poor get in agriculture.
   Apart from expressing that apprehension, a UN-government joint report also has named a number of factors such as seasonality in food production, food price instability, social and household inequalities including gender disparity, natural and man-made disasters, and poor sanitation behind continued poverty and hunger.
   ‘Given the finite amount of land and a still-growing population, land use and crop intensity are approaching a maximum [level], severely limiting the ability of many poor people to earn a livelihood from farming,’ said the recently published ‘Meeting the Challenge: A Mid-term Report on Achieving MDG-1 in Bangladesh’.
   The report finds ‘deteriorating terms of trade’ for farmers owing to high input prices and an imperfect market structure dominated by middlemen causing decrease in agriculture’s contribution to the gross domestic product, despite manifold increases in farm output.
   The share of agriculture in GDP, as mentioned in the report, declined from 30.4 per cent in 1991 to 20.1 in 2005. The sector still employs more than 50 per cent of the country’s labour force.
   The report stresses the need for new investments and innovations in the agriculture sector to boost productivity for removing hunger and poverty as well as promotion of new thrust sectors to sustain the progress so far achieved towards the first UN Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015.
   Bangladesh has reduced the percentage of people living below the poverty line, or the daily income of $1, from 58.8 in 1991 to 40 while the national target in conformity with the UN goal is to bring it down to 29.4.
   According to the report, faltering economic performance, growing population density, climate change, and exclusion from demographic and social changes are among the major reasons for the concern that the current rate of progress in reducing extreme poverty may not be sustained.
   ‘The extreme poor rely on government social protection programmes, family support or charity to survive,’ the report says, adding that no more than 10 per cent people eligible for government assistance receive it.
   Another formidable challenge to Bangladesh’s poverty reduction efforts is said to be the adverse consequence of the global warming since one-fifth of the country’s landmass may go under water, if the sea level rises by just one metre, causing massive displacements and reducing rice production by around 30 per cent.
   The report further acknowledges that poverty continues to prevent many children from the poorest and vulnerable groups from accessing ‘free’ education opportunities due to ‘many direct costs involved.’
   It points out that temporary labour migration — primarily to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries —also has contributed significantly to increasing household income and reducing poverty. ‘Any adverse shock — global, political or economic instability — could seriously undermine the gains in poverty reduction,’ it warns.
   The foreign affairs adviser, Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, presented the executive summary of the report at the annual ministerial review meeting of the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations on ‘Strengthening efforts to eradicate poverty and hunger, including through the global partnership for development’ in Geneva in July. Its in-depth version was published recently by the United Nations Development Programme.
   Iftekhar quoted the Johannesburg Declaration of World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 as saying that the countries of origin of temporary labour migration such as Bangladesh would enjoy a return of $160 to $200 billion if the European Union, Canada, Japan, and the United States allowed migrants to make up 4 per cent of their labour force.

The Daily Star, 03 May 2008

The call by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for a top-level task force to address the issue of the spiraling cost of food worldwide is precisely the kind of co-ordinated global action that is necessary at this precarious moment in history, and could not have come at a better time.

The secretary general’s other suggestions, that the World Food Programme needs to be fully funded, that key producer nations should not ban exports, and that bio-fuels need to be reconsidered in light of the current crisis, are also all well taken.

Most urgent is the extra $755 million needed by the WFP due to the sharp jump in global food prices to stave off hunger in dozens of impoverished countries around the world. The WFP feeds the poorest of the poor, who face starvation otherwise, and the fact that it has in hand only $18 million of the extra $755 million necessary is a disgrace that Ban did well to call attention to.

In addition, his statement, which echoes, among others, those of Oxfam and the UN Special Rapporteur on Right to Food, on the disastrous consequences of bio-fuel, especially bio-fuel subsidies, on the food supply, are salutary, and heartening. A much-needed rethink on the balance between bio-fuels and food is underway.

The UN chief’s call on food-exporting nations was also a welcome one. Current bans or limitations on exports have led only to hoarding and speculation, not lower domestic prices in those countries, with the ultimate result that food has not been reaching those most in need of it.

This is indeed a global problem, and it is good that UN and similar organisations are both aware of the magnitude of the crisis, as well as the need to look at tough solutions and, in Ban’s words, the “urgent necessity to address structural and policy issues that have contributed to the crisis.”

For, make no mistake about it, it is a crisis and the crisis is global, and, as such, the solution can only be global. There is much that individual countries must do and are doing for themselves, but the fact that it is understood that this a global crisis, requiring global solutions, is a good thing.

Afp, Rome, The Daily Star, 13 May 2008

Rice production in Asia, Africa and Latin America is forecast to reach a new record level in 2008, but world rice prices could remain high in the short term, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said Monday.

However the destruction of Myanmar’s food resources by a deadly cyclone could decrease national rice production and impair access to food, according to first FAO estimates.

“World paddy production 2008 could grow by about 2.3 percent, reaching a new record level of 666 million tonnes, according to our preliminary forecasts,” said FAO rice expert Concepcion Calpe.

Production growth could even be higher if recent appeals and incentives to grow more rice lead to expansion, according to the Rice Market Monitor.

But the May 3 cyclone disaster in Myanmar could well worsen the forecast,say FAO officials.

“The cyclone damage could worsen the current global rice production outlook,” said an FAO statement.

“The cyclone struck when paddy farmers were harvesting their dry season crop accounting for 20 percent of annual production.

“Entire rice-growing areas are flooded and many roads and bridges are impassable. Several rice warehouses and stocks were destroyed. Rice prices in Rangoon (Yangon) have already surged by nearly 50 percent.”

“Myanmar may need to turn to neighbouring countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam for rice imports,” the FAO said: “This could lead to further pressure on world prices.”

For the first time, paddy production in Asia could surpass the 600 million tonne benchmark this year, amounting to 605 million tonnes, Calpe was quoted as saying.

“Major gains are expected all across the region,” she said. “Bangladesh, China, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam could register the largest gains. Prospects are also buoyant for Indonesia and Sri Lanka, despite some recent flood-incurred losses.”

Assuming normal rains in the coming months, rice production in Africa is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent to 23.2 million tonnes in 2008.

Paddy production in Latin America and the Carribbean was expected to rebound by 7.4 percent to 26.2 million tonnes.

Rice prices have skyrocketed by around 76 percent between last December and April, according to the FAO Rice Price Index.

International rice prices were expected to remain at relatively high levels, as stocks held by exporters are expected to be reduced heavily.

To avoid food scarcities in their own countries, major rice exporters have imposed export bans, taxes or minimum ceilings, the agency noted.

These measures further restricted the availability of supplies on international markets, triggering yet more price rises and tighter supply conditions.

For prices to fall, favourable weather conditions must prevail in coming months and governments relax rice export restrictions, the FAO said.

Even then, rice prices are unlikely to return to the levels of 2007, as producers have to pay much more for their fertilisers, pesticides and fuel.

Afp, United Nations, The Daily Star, 14 May 2008

A UN special task force on the world food crisis sweeping the globe met for the first time on Monday with the aim of designing an action plan to combat high prices and food shortages.

Under the authority of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the group’s mission is to “to promote a coherent and coordinated response to the current food security crisis,” a preparatory statement said.

Among the key goals are to develop a “comprehensive framework for action,” including a series of short and long term plans for combating the food crisis which has sparked riots, protests and export restrictions worldwide.

Global food prices have nearly doubled in three years according to the World Bank, with experts blaming the soaring prices on trade restrictions, poor growing weather, rising use of biofuels that rely on staples like corn and the hike in fuel prices that make transporting food more expensive.

Pti, New York, The Daily Star, 24 May 2008

Poor countries, relying on food imports, are expected to spend 40 per cent more this year than the last year, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has said.

According to the latest Food Outlook, a biannual publication by the FAO focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets, this year’s food import bill for the Low Income Food Deficit Countries is forecast to reach $ 169 billion.

Characterising this as a ‘worrying development’ the FAO noted that by the end of this year imports could cost four times as much as they did in 2000.

“Food is no longer the cheap commodity that it once was,” said the agency’s Assistant Director-General Hafez Ghanem, stressing that soaring food prices are likely exacerbate the food deprivation suffered by 854 million people.

“We are facing the risk that the number of hungry will increase by many more millions of people,” Ghanem said.

Although the global production outlook is favourable, this is unlikely to translate into the decline of many agriculture commodities because of the need to replenish stocks and rising utilization.

It predicts record cereal production this year but says tight markets will result in continued price volatility.

International prices of most agricultural commodities, the Food Outlook report says, have started to decline, but they are unlikely to return to the low price levels of previous years.

The food price index has remained stable since February 2008, but the average of the first four months of 2008 is still 53 per cent higher when compared to the same period a year ago.

Despite a favourable global production, the expected price decline in many basic agricultural commodities during the new 2008-09 season is likely to be limited, because of the need to replenish stocks and an increase in utilisation. Due to rising utilisation, more than one good season is required to replenish stocks and reduce price volatility, report adds.

The FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2008 points to a record output, now at nearly 2192 million tonnes, including milled rice, up 3.8 per cent from 2007.

Among major cereals, the tight wheat supply is likely to improve most, given the prospects for better harvests in 2008.

Despite record production levels in several crops, tight markets will probably lead to continued price volatility during the season.

Heads of state and government will address the problem of high food prices and the challenges of climate change, bio-energy and food security at the upcoming three-day summit in Rome beginning on June 3.

The rise in international prices of oilseeds and oilseed products, it says, has accelerated in 2007-08, with values climbing to new record levels in March 2008.

World markets have tightened considerably as reduced supply growth for oils and a drop in meal supplies are coinciding with further expansion in demand.

First forecasts for the 2008-09 season point towards a strong recovery in global oilseed production, and the resulting oil and meal output should be sufficient to meet global demand, the FAO report adds.

Regarding sugar, it says, generally favourable growing conditions led to a record world production in 2007-08 and although world sugar consumption is foreseen to increase at a sustained rate, it will not be enough to absorb an expected second consecutive global supply surplus.

International sugar prices are likely to remain under downward pressure, it predicts.

Global meat output, the agency says, is expected to grow in 2008 despite high feed prices. Strong economic growth is expected to sustain steadfast consumption in many developing countries.

Global milk production, which is responding to the past year’s high milk product prices, is forecast to grow strongly in 2008. However, it says there is uncertainty as to where dairy markets will head.

Global trade in milk products is anticipated to fall again in 2008 mainly because of reduced exportable supplies.

Food Outlook forecasts that aquaculture production growth will continue this year with the historic milestone of reaching the same level as the expected capture fisheries in 2008. Prices for wild species from capture fisheries are moving upwards strongly but the price increase for farmed species are expected to be more moderate.

Worldwide potato production could expand over the next decade between 2 and 3 per cent annually with developing countries, especially those situated in Sub-Saharan Africa, being the main engine of growth.

China, the world’s biggest potato producer, is reviewing proposals for the potato to become one of the country’s major food crops, while India plans to double its output in the next five to 10 years, it adds.

Afp, Tokyo, 24 May 2008

The World Bank, the World Food Organisation and other aid groups will hold an emergency meeting next week to discuss ways to deal with the global food crisis, a World Bank official said Friday.

Senior officials including World Bank president Robert Zoellick will meet Thursday on the sidelines of an African development conference in Yokohama, southwest of Tokyo, the Bank’s Tokyo office chief Kazushige Taniguchi said.

Top officials from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are also expected to attend, he said.

“This will be an opportunity to share awareness of short-term and longer-term challenges the world faces in food supply,” he said.

“In addition to aid to countries in urgent need of food, we have to look at the longer term goal of boosting food production,” he said.

“You may think that farmers would naturally increase production if food prices rise, but that logic doesn’t work in Africa, which lacks public infrastructure, such as hedging of drastic moves in food prices,” he said.

Afp, Warsaw, The Daily Star, 08 June 2008

The world’s farmers were bypassed at this week’s Rome UN food summit, reflecting a crucial gap in addressing the crisis at its most basic level, the leader of a global farmers’ group said Friday.

“It’s a reflection of how disconnected and dis-linked our multilateral agencies are, from the situation on the ground,” Ajay Vashee, the freshly- elected head of the International Federation of Agricultural Producers (IFAP) told AFP at the close of the 38th World Farmers’ Congress in Warsaw, Poland.

“The people who have the ability to actually do something about this crisis were precluded,” Vashee said, adding it was a recipe for “confusion and chaos.” Uniting 600 million independent family farmers in 115 organisations from 80 countries around the globe, IFAP is the world’s largest farmers’ organisation. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) crisis summit which ended Thursday in Rome pledged 6.5 billion dollars (4.1 billion euros) in emergency food relief and vowed to halve global hunger by 2015 by taking “urgent” action over the global food crisis.

Afp, Tokyo, The Daily Star, 18 May 2008

The head of the UN food agency urged Japan and other rich nations to give priority to aid for agriculture to solve the current global food crisis.

Japan has pledged to put the food crisis on the agenda when it hosts the annual summit of the Group of Eight industrialised nations in July